Blog | Dunham

Macro 12/5/2023

Beyond the Discounts: Black Friday Sales, BNPL, And The Shadow of Debt

Black Friday in 2023 saw record nominal sales but masked a deeper tale: the softest annualized growth in Black Friday sales in six years, surging c...

Macro 12/1/2023

The Perpetual Game: Saudi Arabia, OPEC, And Oil Markets Are Stuck In A Prisoner’s Dilemma

Understand the oil market's plight through the Prisoner's Dilemma. Despite attempts by Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bolster prices, conflicting self-in...

Macro 11/24/2023

From Turkeys to Snowflakes: Decoding Unforeseeable Risks and Market Complexity

Explore Taleb's 'Black Swan' concept unveiling unforeseen events. Beware complacency in forecasting future markets, likening to a snowflake's role ...

Macro 11/17/2023

Part Two: How A BRICS Currency Could Work, Why It Isn’t Likely, And What It Means For The Dollar

This deep dive into global trade dynamics underscores how crucial understanding capital flows are. The US-BRICS balance profoundly impacts global g...

Macro 11/13/2023

Part One: Is a BRICS Currency a Flawed Idea? I Think So – And Here’s Why

The article explores 'de-dollarization' and the potential formation of a BRICS currency. It addresses the reasons why this may not be as straightfo...

Macro 11/2/2023

The Natural Rate of Interest: The Hidden Force Shaping Economics

The Fed's monetary policy and natural interest rates matter to investors. For years, natural rates of interest have been declining, influencing inv...

Macro 10/24/2023

Unveiling the Silent Warning Signs: The Bank Lending Decline and Steepening Yield Curve - Why They Matter

Amid greater market uncertainty, declining bank lending is indicating some potential issues. Meanwhile, a rapidly steepening yield curve may pose f...

Soft Landing 10/3/2023

“Don't Be The Turkey”: Questioning The Soft-Landing Narrative

The U.S. economy's unexpected resilience raises concerns about complacency and "recency bias". As the media touts a 'soft landing,' history shows e...