Are US retail sales actually growing, or is it just inflation?

Retail sales hit a record $763.7 billion in May 2026, up 6.9% year-over-year, but that number isn't adjusted for prices. Once you strip out inflation, real retail sales have been essentially flat since April 2021. Americans are spending more dollars, but they're not buying meaningfully more stuff.

How much of US personal income now comes from government transfer payments?

Government transfer payments, like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and unemployment insurance, make up roughly 19% of real personal income in 2026, more than double the 8% share seen in 1970. That gap, nearly $4 trillion a year, is income tied to government spending rather than wages or business activity, and it's increasingly funded by federal deficits.

How low is the US personal savings rate right now?

The personal savings rate dropped to 2.8% in May 2026 and 2.6% in June, among the lowest readings outside the COVID era in decades, before rising slightly to 3.0% in July. Compare that with the historical norm of 6% to 12% across most prior decades, and households clearly have a much thinner financial cushion than they used to.

Have wages kept up with rent since 2022?

Wages have grown faster than rent since mid-2022, pushing the wage-to-rent ratio to its best level since 2021. That said, this recovery only claws back part of what was lost the decade before. The ratio still sits well below its January 2015 level, so a paycheck buys noticeably less rent than it did ten years ago.

Is the US labor market still healthy in 2026?

The labor market is cooling but hasn't fallen apart. May payrolls were revised down from an initial 172,000 to 129,000, and June slowed further to just 57,000 new jobs, while unemployment held at 4.2%. Labor force participation dropped to 61.5% in June, the lowest reading outside the pandemic in roughly 50 years, partly because workers are leaving the labor force rather than landing new jobs.

Is the US Consumer Healthy in 2026? 4 Warning Signs

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Is the US Consumer Healthy in 2026? 4 Warning Signs | Dunham