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Insights: Macro
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Recent posts
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
China vs. the E.U.: The Trade War Nobody Is Talking About (Yet)
China’s exports are flooding Europe, widening deficits and sparking new tariffs—an overlooked trade war that could reshape global markets
MacroMorning PourTrade War
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
OPEC’s Oil Flood, BNPL’s Credit Hit, and Copper’s Global Squeeze
OPEC’s oil flood accelerates as Saudi Arabia pumps, BNPL debt enters FICO scores, and a historic copper squeeze rattles global supply chains.
MacroCommoditiesDeep Dive
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
What Is a Dollar Shortage? How a Strong USD Threatens the Global Economy
A global dollar shortage is squeezing emerging markets as higher U.S. rates and a strong dollar make debts harder to repay and trade costlier.
MacroCurrenciesMarkets
All Posts
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
China’s Balance Sheet Recession: Is Debt Trapping the World’s #2 Economy?
Is China stuck in a balance sheet recession? Rising debt, falling property prices, and weak consumer demand hint at prolonged economic stagnation, similar to Japan.
MacroMorning PourChina
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Triffin’s Dilemma: The Hidden Cost of the U.S. Dollar’s Dominance
Triffin’s Dilemma explains why the U.S. dollar must run deficits to fuel global trade—and why that same role weakens the U.S. economy.
MacroMorning PourCurrencies
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
The Flaws of a BRICS Currency: Why De-Dollarization Won’t Succeed (For Now)
Despite de-dollarization headlines, BRICS nations depend on Western deficits. Here’s why a BRICS currency faces deep structural limits.
MacroCurrenciesMarketsBRICS
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
What If the U.S. Dollar Weakens? Perks, Risks, & Impact
A weaker dollar isn’t all bad—or good. See how it impacts inflation, trade, debt, and why the global economy depends on U.S. demand.
MacroMorning PourCurrencies
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Fed Liquidity Is Back, the Private Sector Is Deleveraging, & Wages Keep Lagging
Fed liquidity is expanding again via QE-Lite, private-sector debt is slowly unwinding relative to the economy, and U.S. wages continue falling behind
MacroDeep DiveDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Trump's Tariffs: Winners, Losers, & Its Global Economic Impact
Trump’s new tariffs aim to boost U.S. manufacturing, rebalance trade, and test the global economy’s resilience without hopefully triggering a trade spiral
MacroMorning PourTrade War
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Fiscal Dominance: Why Rising Government Deficits Are Undermining the Fed
Fiscal dominance occurs when government deficits overpower monetary policy. Learn how rising debt is weakening the Fed’s ability to control inflation.
MacroInflationDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Fiscal and Trade Deficits Explained: What They Are and Why They Matter
Learn what fiscal and trade deficits are, how they differ, and why persistent deficits can impact inflation, currency strength, and long-term growth.
MacroMorning PourTrade War
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
China’s Manufacturing Glut Is Fueling Trade Tensions and a Global Slowdown
China’s manufacturing glut is flooding global markets with cheap exports, fueling trade tensions, deflation, and growing risks of a global trade war.
MacroChinaTrade War
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
China’s Auto Price War Is a Warning for Global Markets
China's auto price war, sparked by BYD, reveals deeper economic problems, impacting global markets with collapsing margins, overcapacity, & rising trade tensions
MacroChinaTrade WarAutos