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Insights: Morning Pour
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Recent posts
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
China vs. the E.U.: The Trade War Nobody Is Talking About (Yet)
China’s exports are flooding Europe, widening deficits and sparking new tariffs—an overlooked trade war that could reshape global markets
MacroMorning PourTrade War
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
What a Weak Dollar Means for Inflation, Markets, and Clients
Learn what a weak dollar means for inflation, imports, markets, client portfolios and how financial advisors can explain these changes
Morning PourCurrenciesMarkets
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
China’s Balance Sheet Recession: Is Debt Trapping the World’s #2 Economy?
Is China stuck in a balance sheet recession? Rising debt, falling property prices, and weak consumer demand hint at prolonged economic stagnation, similar to Japan.
MacroMorning PourChina
All Posts
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Triffin’s Dilemma: The Hidden Cost of the U.S. Dollar’s Dominance
Triffin’s Dilemma explains why the U.S. dollar must run deficits to fuel global trade—and why that same role weakens the U.S. economy.
MacroMorning PourCurrencies
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Private Credit Isn’t Isolated — The Risk Is Flowing Back to Banks
Private credit has exploded — and rising leverage, opaque valuations, and bank ties are producing systemic risk. Learn the warning signs and why it matters
Morning PourDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Bank Reserves Are Shrinking — Is a Liquidity Crunch Next?
U.S. bank reserves are plunging to multi-year lows. Is a liquidity crunch next? See what’s draining reserves and why regional banks are at risk.
Morning PourLiquidityBanking
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
What If the U.S. Dollar Weakens? Perks, Risks, & Impact
A weaker dollar isn’t all bad—or good. See how it impacts inflation, trade, debt, and why the global economy depends on U.S. demand.
MacroMorning PourCurrencies
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Trump's Tariffs: Winners, Losers, & Its Global Economic Impact
Trump’s new tariffs aim to boost U.S. manufacturing, rebalance trade, and test the global economy’s resilience without hopefully triggering a trade spiral
MacroMorning PourTrade War
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Fiscal and Trade Deficits Explained: What They Are and Why They Matter
Learn what fiscal and trade deficits are, how they differ, and why persistent deficits can impact inflation, currency strength, and long-term growth.
MacroMorning PourTrade War
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Currency Wars Explained: How Trade Wars Are Entering a Dangerous 2nd Phase
A currency war happens when countries weaken their currency to offset tariffs. Learn why trade wars often lead to currency wars — and why it’s dangerous.
MacroMorning PourCurrencies
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
The Natural Rate of Interest Explained: What It Is and Why It Matters
Learn what the natural rate of interest is, how it shapes monetary policy, and why falling natural rates make recessions and policy mistakes more likely.
MacroMorning PourLiquidity
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Debt Cycles 101: Why Credit Drives Economic Growth
Debt cycles explain how credit drives economic booms and busts. Learn how borrowing fuels economic growth, why deleveraging hurts, and what to watch.
Morning PourDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
The Impossible Trinity: Why the Yuan Won't Replace the USD (For Now)
The Impossible Trinity explains why currencies can’t control interest rates, capital flows, and exchange rates—and why China’s yuan can’t rival the dollar
MacroMorning PourChina