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Recent posts
Adem Tumerkan • Feb 3, 2026
Trade Wars Explained: Tariffs, Currency Wars, and the Global Economic Fallout
Trade wars explained: how tariffs, retaliation, and currency wars interact with global imbalances, inflation, & financial stability across the global economy
MacroTrade WarCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Feb 3, 2026
China’s Trade Truce With the U.S. Buys Time — But Its Problems Are Structural
China’s housing collapse, local government debt, and overcapacity show why a temporary U.S. trade truce won’t solve its deeper economic crisis.
MacroMorning PourChina
Adem Tumerkan • Feb 3, 2026
Trump Tariffs Explained: Winners, Losers, & Its Global Economic Impact
Trump’s new tariffs aim to boost U.S. manufacturing, rebalance trade, and test the global economy’s resilience without hopefully triggering a trade spiral
MacroMorning PourTrade War
All Posts
Adem Tumerkan • Feb 3, 2026
Real Rates Bite, China’s $1T Surplus, & Short Term Debt Risks Rise
Real rates stay too tight, China’s $1T surplus is becoming a global market problem, and governments face rising rollover risks as short-term debt piles up.
ChinaDeep DiveDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Feb 2, 2026
Crypto Explained for Financial Advisors: A Jargon-Free Cheat Sheet
A jargon-free crypto cheat sheet for financial advisors - covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi, taxes, risks, and how to answer common client questions
CryptoFinancial Advisor
Adem Tumerkan • Feb 2, 2026
Why Investors Hate Losing: Prospect Theory, Loss Aversion & Market Behavior
Prospect theory explains why investors fear losses more than gains. Learn how loss aversion, ego, and the Babe Ruth Effect shape investment decisions.
MarketsMental Toolbox
Adem Tumerkan • Feb 2, 2026
What Is a Dollar Shortage? How a Strong USD Threatens the Global Economy
A global dollar shortage is squeezing emerging markets as higher U.S. rates and a strong dollar make debts harder to repay and trade costlier.
MacroCurrenciesMarkets
Adem Tumerkan • Feb 2, 2026
The De-Dollarization Dream: Why a BRICS Currency Isn’t Realistic Yet
BRICS headlines now focus on a gold-anchored “unit,” but it’s not a true currency—and capital controls, surpluses, and the yuan limit de-dollarization.
MacroCurrenciesMarketsBRICS
Adem Tumerkan • Feb 2, 2026
BRICS Currency: How It Could Work, Why It Likely Won’t, & Its Impact on the USD
Despite de-dollarization headlines, BRICS nations face deep trade imbalances. Here’s how a BRICS currency could work - and why it’s unlikely to replace the USD
MacroChinaCurrenciesBRICS
Adem Tumerkan • Feb 2, 2026
The Flaws of a BRICS Currency: Why De-Dollarization Won’t Succeed (For Now)
Despite de-dollarization headlines, BRICS nations depend on Western deficits. Here’s why a BRICS currency faces deep structural limits.
MacroCurrenciesMarketsBRICS
Adem Tumerkan • Feb 1, 2026
Understanding Inflation: The 3 Types & Why Prices Keep Rising
Learn how demand-pull, cost-push, and monetary inflation work and how all three drove post-pandemic price surges that still affect investors today.
InflationMarketsCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Feb 1, 2026
The Natural Rate of Interest Explained: What It Is and Why It Matters
Learn what the natural rate of interest is, how it shapes monetary policy, and why falling natural rates make recessions and policy mistakes more likely.
MacroMorning PourLiquidity
Adem Tumerkan • Feb 1, 2026
The Perfect Storm: Why This May Be The Most Important Time For A Financial Advisor
A historic 'baby boom' retirement wave & rising sequence-of-returns risk are creating a perfect storm—here’s why financial advisors matter more than ever
RetirementFinancial Advisor