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Insights: Debt & Credit
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Recent posts
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
OPEC’s Oil Flood, BNPL’s Credit Hit, and Copper’s Global Squeeze
OPEC’s oil flood accelerates as Saudi Arabia pumps, BNPL debt enters FICO scores, and a historic copper squeeze rattles global supply chains.
MacroCommoditiesDeep DiveDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
China’s Balance Sheet Recession: Is Debt Trapping the World’s #2 Economy?
China is trapped in a balance sheet recession — where debt repayment crowds out growth. Here's how it unfolds and what it means for global markets and portfolios.
MacroMorning PourChina
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Private Credit Isn’t Isolated — The Risk Is Flowing Back to Banks
Private credit has exploded — and rising leverage, opaque valuations, and bank ties are producing systemic risk. Learn the warning signs and why it matters
Morning PourDebt & Credit
All Posts
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Real Rates Bite, China’s $1T Surplus, & Short Term Debt Risks Rise
Real rates stay too tight, China’s $1T surplus is becoming a global market problem, and governments face rising rollover risks as short-term debt piles up.
ChinaDeep DiveDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Fed Liquidity Is Back, the Private Sector Is Deleveraging, & Wages Keep Lagging
Fed liquidity is expanding again via QE-Lite, private-sector debt is slowly unwinding relative to the economy, and U.S. wages continue falling behind
MacroDeep DiveDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Fiscal Dominance: Why Rising Government Deficits Are Undermining the Fed
Fiscal dominance occurs when government deficits overpower monetary policy. Learn how rising debt is weakening the Fed’s ability to control inflation.
MacroInflationDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Is the AI Bubble About to Burst? Debt, Hype, and Overcapacity
Exploring whether the AI boom has become a bubble, as debt-fueled spending, hype cycles, and overcapacity raise risks for investors and broader markets.
Debt & CreditAIMarketsCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
What Is a Debt Cycle? How Credit Fuels Growth and Recessions
Learn how debt cycles work, why credit fuels economic growth, what causes deleveraging, and which warning signs investors should watch.
Morning PourDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Markets Don’t Trend Toward Equilibrium — They Trend Toward Instability
Why markets trend toward instability—not equilibrium. Explore Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis and Soros’ Reflexivity to understand bubbles & crashes
Debt & CreditMarketsCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
How Does Debt Fuel Financial Bubbles? Lessons from History
See how debt and easy credit fueled historic financial bubbles, from Tulipmania and the South Sea Bubble to mining speculation and Railway Mania.
Morning PourDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Could Deflation Be the Next Big Risk? What Investors Should Watch
High debt, weaker demographics, falling asset prices, and AI-driven productivity may raise deflation risk. Here’s what investors need to know.
MacroMorning PourInflation
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
America's $1.2 Trillion Interest Bill, Japan's Backfiring Inflation, and Widening Trade Imbalances
US interest payments crossed $1.2 trillion — widening wealth inequality. Japan's inflation bet is backfiring. Global trade imbalances are accelerating
MacroInflationDeep Dive
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
$675B in New Equity Is Flooding the Market, Real Wages Just Went Negative, and Margin Debt Surges
A $675 billion equity wave is hitting markets, real wages just turned negative for the first time since 2023, and margin debt hit an all-time record.
InflationDeep DiveMarkets