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Insights: Debt & Credit
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Recent posts
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
OPEC’s Oil Flood, BNPL’s Credit Hit, and Copper’s Global Squeeze
OPEC’s oil flood accelerates as Saudi Arabia pumps, BNPL debt enters FICO scores, and a historic copper squeeze rattles global supply chains.
MacroCommoditiesDeep DiveDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
China’s Balance Sheet Recession: Is Debt Trapping the World’s #2 Economy?
Is China stuck in a balance sheet recession? Rising debt, falling property prices, and weak consumer demand hint at prolonged economic stagnation, similar to Japan.
MacroMorning PourChina
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Private Credit Isn’t Isolated — The Risk Is Flowing Back to Banks
Private credit has exploded — and rising leverage, opaque valuations, and bank ties are producing systemic risk. Learn the warning signs and why it matters
Morning PourDebt & Credit
All Posts
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Real Rates Bite, China’s $1T Surplus, & Short Term Debt Risks Rise
Real rates stay too tight, China’s $1T surplus is becoming a global market problem, and governments face rising rollover risks as short-term debt piles up.
ChinaDeep DiveDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Fed Liquidity Is Back, the Private Sector Is Deleveraging, & Wages Keep Lagging
Fed liquidity is expanding again via QE-Lite, private-sector debt is slowly unwinding relative to the economy, and U.S. wages continue falling behind
MacroDeep DiveDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Fiscal Dominance: Why Rising Government Deficits Are Undermining the Fed
Fiscal dominance occurs when government deficits overpower monetary policy. Learn how rising debt is weakening the Fed’s ability to control inflation.
MacroInflationDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Is the AI Bubble About to Burst? Debt, Hype, and Overcapacity
Exploring whether the AI boom has become a bubble, as debt-fueled spending, hype cycles, and overcapacity raise risks for investors and broader markets.
Debt & CreditAIMarketsCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Debt Cycles 101: Why Credit Drives Economic Growth
Debt cycles explain how credit drives economic booms and busts. Learn how borrowing fuels economic growth, why deleveraging hurts, and what to watch.
Morning PourDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Markets Don’t Trend Toward Equilibrium — They Trend Toward Instability
Why markets trend toward instability—not equilibrium. Explore Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis and Soros’ Reflexivity to understand bubbles & crashes
Debt & CreditMarketsCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
How Debt Fueled Some of History’s Greatest Financial Bubbles
From tulips to railroads, debt fueled history’s greatest financial bubbles. Learn how easy credit amplifies booms and turns market crashes brutal
Morning PourDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Inflation Was Obvious. But is Deflation the Next Risk Ahead?
Is debt-deflation the next economic threat? Explore key drivers like high debt, AI productivity, demographics, and asset price declines that pose big risks
MacroMorning PourInflation