Back to Insights
Insights: Cycles
Discover industry insights, macro trends, and valuable strategies designed to guide your financial journey. Subscribe to get the latest insights delivered straight to your inbox.
Recent posts
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Understanding Inflation: The 3 Types & Why Prices Keep Rising
Learn how demand-pull, cost-push, and monetary inflation work and how all three drove post-pandemic price surges that still affect investors today.
InflationMarketsCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Is the AI Bubble About to Burst? Debt, Hype, and Overcapacity
Exploring whether the AI boom has become a bubble, as debt-fueled spending, hype cycles, and overcapacity raise risks for investors and broader markets.
Debt & CreditAIMarketsCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
OPEC’s Prisoner’s Dilemma: Why Saudi Arabia May Flood the Oil Market Again
OPEC+ infighting, quota cheating, and falling oil prices reveal a classic prisoner’s dilemma—one that may force Saudi Arabia to flood the oil market again.
CommoditiesMarketsCycles
All Posts
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
The Natural Rate of Interest Explained: What It Is and Why It Matters
Learn what the natural rate of interest is, how it shapes monetary policy, and why falling natural rates make recessions and policy mistakes more likely.
MacroMorning PourLiquidity
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
What Is a Debt Cycle? How Credit Fuels Growth and Recessions
Learn how debt cycles work, why credit fuels economic growth, what causes deleveraging, and which warning signs investors should watch.
Morning PourDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Markets Don’t Trend Toward Equilibrium — They Trend Toward Instability
Why markets trend toward instability—not equilibrium. Explore Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis and Soros’ Reflexivity to understand bubbles & crashes
Debt & CreditMarketsCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
How Does Debt Fuel Financial Bubbles? Lessons from History
See how debt and easy credit fueled historic financial bubbles, from Tulipmania and the South Sea Bubble to mining speculation and Railway Mania.
Morning PourDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
The Capital Cycle Explained: How Supply Drives Markets More Than Demand
The capital cycle explains how supply and capital flows drive market booms and busts. Learn why supply matters more than demand for investors and what to look for next.
MacroCommoditiesMarketsCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Trade Wars Explained: Tariffs, Currency Wars, and Global Impact
Trade wars explained: how tariffs, retaliation, and currency wars interact with global imbalances, inflation, & financial stability across the global economy
MacroTrade WarCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
U.S. Manufacturing Booms, China’s Debt Hits 300% of GDP, & Inflation Is Cooling
U.S. manufacturing shows signs of a rebound, China’s debt climbs past 300% of GDP, and real-time data suggest inflation may be cooling faster than headlines imply.
MacroChinaInflationDeep Dive
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Why Copper Prices Are Rising: The Supply Shortage That Could Last Until 2040
Copper prices are up 100% since COVID — but not because the economy is booming. A structural supply deficit and 25-year mine lag explain why the shortage could last until 2040
CommoditiesMarketsCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
High-Paying Jobs Are Getting Cut, Markets Are Chasing Hope, and Defense Orders Are Near Records
High-paying jobs are getting cut, markets are chasing hope, and U.S. defense orders are near records as AI layoffs and war spending reshape growth.
Deep DiveAIMarketsCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
$675B in New Equity Is Flooding the Market, Real Wages Just Went Negative, and Margin Debt Surges
A $675 billion equity wave is hitting markets, real wages just turned negative for the first time since 2023, and margin debt hit an all-time record.
InflationDeep DiveMarkets