Insights: Cycles

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Recent posts

Adem Tumerkan • Jul 8, 2026

Understanding Inflation: 3 Types & Why Prices Rise

Learn the 3 types of inflation — demand-pull, cost-push, and monetary — and how they drive rising prices, portfolios, and retirement planning.

InflationMarketsCycles

Adem Tumerkan • Jun 24, 2026

Is the AI Bubble About to Burst? Debt, Hype, and Overcapacity

Exploring whether the AI boom has become a bubble, as debt-fueled spending, hype cycles, and overcapacity raise risks for investors and broader markets.

Debt & CreditAIMarketsCycles

Adem Tumerkan • Jul 2, 2026

OPEC’s Prisoner’s Dilemma and Why Oil Prices Keep Falling

OPEC+ is struggling to support oil prices as members face a prisoner’s dilemma. Here’s why production cuts keep failing, why cheating pays, and why Saudi Arabia may eventually choose market share over price defense.

CommoditiesMarketsCycles

All Posts

Adem Tumerkan • Feb 1, 2026

The Natural Rate of Interest Explained: What It Is and Why It Matters

Learn what the natural rate of interest is, how it shapes monetary policy, and why falling natural rates make recessions and policy mistakes more likely.

MacroMorning PourLiquidity

Adem Tumerkan • Jun 23, 2026

What Is a Debt Cycle? How Credit Fuels Growth and Recessions

Learn how debt cycles work, why credit fuels economic growth, what causes deleveraging, and which warning signs investors should watch.

Morning PourDebt & Credit

Adem Tumerkan • Feb 13, 2026

Markets Don’t Trend Toward Equilibrium — They Trend Toward Instability

Why markets trend toward instability—not equilibrium. Explore Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis and Soros’ Reflexivity to understand bubbles & crashes

Debt & CreditMarketsCycles

Adem Tumerkan • Jun 23, 2026

How Does Debt Fuel Financial Bubbles? Lessons from History

See how debt and easy credit fueled historic financial bubbles, from Tulipmania and the South Sea Bubble to mining speculation and Railway Mania.

Morning PourDebt & Credit

Adem Tumerkan • Jul 6, 2026

The Capital Cycle Explained: How Supply Drives Markets More Than Demand

The capital cycle explains how supply and capital flows drive market booms and busts. Learn why supply matters more than demand for investors and what to look for next.

MacroCommoditiesMarketsCycles

Adem Tumerkan • Jul 14, 2026

The U.S. Demographic Problem: Falling Birth Rates and an Aging Economy

U.S. birth rates remain below replacement as the population ages. Here’s how falling fertility could affect workers, growth, Social Security, Medicare, and immigration.

MacroCyclesDemographics

Adem Tumerkan • Feb 21, 2026

Trade Wars Explained: Tariffs, Currency Wars, and Global Impact

Trade wars explained: how tariffs, retaliation, and currency wars interact with global imbalances, inflation, & financial stability across the global economy

MacroTrade WarCycles

Adem Tumerkan • Feb 12, 2026

U.S. Manufacturing Booms, China’s Debt Hits 300% of GDP, & Inflation Is Cooling

U.S. manufacturing shows signs of a rebound, China’s debt climbs past 300% of GDP, and real-time data suggest inflation may be cooling faster than headlines imply.

MacroChinaInflationDeep Dive

Adem Tumerkan • Jun 24, 2026

Why Copper Prices Are Rising: The Supply Shortage That Could Last Until 2040

Copper prices are up 100% since COVID — but not because the economy is booming. A structural supply deficit and 25-year mine lag explain why the shortage could last until 2040

CommoditiesMarketsCycles

Adem Tumerkan • May 29, 2026

High-Paying Jobs Are Getting Cut, Markets Are Chasing Hope, and Defense Orders Are Near Records

High-paying jobs are getting cut, markets are chasing hope, and U.S. defense orders are near records as AI layoffs and war spending reshape growth.

Deep DiveAIMarketsCycles