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Insights: Cycles
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Recent posts
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Understanding Inflation: The 3 Types & Why Prices Keep Rising
Learn how demand-pull, cost-push, and monetary inflation work and how all three drove post-pandemic price surges that still affect investors today.
InflationMarketsCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Is the AI Bubble About to Burst? Debt, Hype, and Overcapacity
Exploring whether the AI boom has become a bubble, as debt-fueled spending, hype cycles, and overcapacity raise risks for investors and broader markets.
Debt & CreditAIMarketsCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
OPEC’s Prisoner’s Dilemma: Why Saudi Arabia May Flood the Oil Market Again
OPEC+ infighting, quota cheating, and falling oil prices reveal a classic prisoner’s dilemma—one that may force Saudi Arabia to flood the oil market again.
CommoditiesMarketsCycles
All Posts
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
The Natural Rate of Interest Explained: What It Is and Why It Matters
Learn what the natural rate of interest is, how it shapes monetary policy, and why falling natural rates make recessions and policy mistakes more likely.
MacroMorning PourLiquidity
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Debt Cycles 101: Why Credit Drives Economic Growth
Debt cycles explain how credit drives economic booms and busts. Learn how borrowing fuels economic growth, why deleveraging hurts, and what to watch.
Morning PourDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Markets Don’t Trend Toward Equilibrium — They Trend Toward Instability
Why markets trend toward instability—not equilibrium. Explore Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis and Soros’ Reflexivity to understand bubbles & crashes
Debt & CreditMarketsCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
How Debt Fueled Some of History’s Greatest Financial Bubbles
From tulips to railroads, debt fueled history’s greatest financial bubbles. Learn how easy credit amplifies booms and turns market crashes brutal
Morning PourDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
The Capital Cycle Explained: How Supply Drives Markets More Than Demand
The capital cycle explains how supply and capital flows drive market booms and busts. Learn why supply matters more than demand for investors and what to look for next.
MacroCommoditiesMarketsCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Trade Wars Explained: Tariffs, Currency Wars, and Global Impact
Trade wars explained: how tariffs, retaliation, and currency wars interact with global imbalances, inflation, & financial stability across the global economy
MacroTrade WarCycles
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
U.S. Manufacturing Booms, China’s Debt Hits 300% of GDP, & Inflation Is Cooling
U.S. manufacturing shows signs of a rebound, China’s debt climbs past 300% of GDP, and real-time data suggest inflation may be cooling faster than headlines imply.
MacroChinaInflationDeep Dive