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Insights: China
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Recent posts
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
China’s Balance Sheet Recession: Is Debt Trapping the World’s #2 Economy?
Is China stuck in a balance sheet recession? Rising debt, falling property prices, and weak consumer demand hint at prolonged economic stagnation, similar to Japan.
MacroMorning PourChinaDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Real Rates Bite, China’s $1T Surplus, & Short Term Debt Risks Rise
Real rates stay too tight, China’s $1T surplus is becoming a global market problem, and governments face rising rollover risks as short-term debt piles up.
ChinaDeep DiveDebt & Credit
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
China’s Manufacturing Glut Is Fueling Trade Tensions and a Global Slowdown
China’s manufacturing glut is flooding global markets with cheap exports, fueling trade tensions, deflation, and growing risks of a global trade war.
MacroChinaTrade War
All Posts
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
China’s Auto Price War Is a Warning for Global Markets
China's auto price war, sparked by BYD, reveals deeper economic problems, impacting global markets with collapsing margins, overcapacity, & rising trade tensions
MacroChinaTrade WarAutos
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
The Impossible Trinity: Why the Yuan Won't Replace the USD (For Now)
The Impossible Trinity explains why currencies can’t control interest rates, capital flows, and exchange rates—and why China’s yuan can’t rival the dollar
MacroMorning PourChina
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
China’s Trade Truce With the U.S. Buys Time — But Its Problems Are Structural
China’s housing collapse, local government debt, and overcapacity show why a temporary U.S. trade truce won’t solve its deeper economic crisis.
MacroMorning PourChina
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
BRICS Currency: How It Could Work, Why It Likely Won’t, & Its Impact on the USD
Despite de-dollarization headlines, BRICS nations face deep trade imbalances. Here’s how a BRICS currency could work - and why it’s unlikely to replace the USD
MacroChinaCurrenciesBRICS
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Liquidity Is Evaporating, AI’s Building Boom, & China’s Job Market Crumbles
Liquidity buffers are vanishing as reverse repo drains, AI data centers surge past offices in construction, and China’s youth unemployment soars
ChinaDeep DiveLiquidityAI
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
U.S. Manufacturing Booms, China’s Debt Hits 300% of GDP, & Inflation Is Cooling
U.S. manufacturing shows signs of a rebound, China’s debt climbs past 300% of GDP, and real-time data suggest inflation may be cooling faster than headlines imply.
MacroChinaInflationDeep Dive
Adem Tumerkan • Recent
Is China’s Stock Market Rally Forming a Bubble Amid Economic Weakness?
China’s stock rally is surging amid deflation, weak loan growth, & toxic debt. Is the market disconnecting from economic reality? Or are stocks front running?
MacroMorning PourChinaMarkets