Content Editor, Dunham | 2025 ThinkAdvisor Luminary Award Winner | 2026 Wealthies Finalist — Thought Leader of the Year | Macroeconomics, markets, geopolitics & global trends
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The World Is Running Out of Its Oil Cushion — And That’s a Problem
Global oil inventories are heading for all-time lows — and a Strait of Hormuz reopening won't stop the bleed.
The damage has already spread beyond energy markets, hitting food supply, manufacturing, and airline capacity across Asia and Europe.
Why it matters: Countries have been raiding both commercial oil stocks (floating tankers, ships, storage, etc) and government emergency reserves just to keep the lights on. Once those are gone, the next shock – like a pipeline outage, a weather event, another war - hits a system with nothing left to absorb it.
The Deep Dive: Most pundits tracking this crisis are asking the wrong question.
“Will Hormuz reopen? When?”
And while that’s obviously important - it doesn't matter as much as you'd think.
Because even a late-April resumption of flows still sends global inventories to all-time lows before they can catch a breath.
Put simply, the damage is already done.
But before getting into why, it's worth understanding what's actually being drained.
There are two distinct types of oil stocks declining simultaneously.
First, commercial inventories - the above-ground private storage tanks, refineries, and floating tankers at sea that hold crude and refined products at any given moment.
Second, strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) - the emergency stockpiles governments specifically set aside for crises like this one (the last big use of it was after the Ukraine-Russia war broke out).
Thus there's a diminishing oil cushion for the next disruption - whatever it turns out to be.
And the physical market is already stressed out.
As Goldman noted, the spread between physical Brent and futures Brent spiked to nearly $35 a barrel in early April - meaning crude right now commands a massive premium over crude delivered later (refiners will pay almost anything to keep running).
A ceasefire announcement doesn't put tankers back in the water overnight either. Iran has launched over 20 confirmed attacks on merchant ships and reportedly laid sea mines. Crew safety, war-risk insurance premiums, and shipping firm liability don't reset with a weak handshake.
With this in mind, inventory declines will likely extend into May and June even under an optimistic reopening scenario.
The point is, keep an eye on the ever-declining inventory levels. Because once they’re out – that could be devastating for the global economy.
Figure 1: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, April 2026
Housing in America: Too Many Sellers, Too Few Buyers - And No End in Sight
Sellers outnumber buyers by 43% nationally — but prices aren't falling because most sellers locked in 3% mortgages and have no reason to move.
Housing affordability has collapsed from 29% to 41% of median income since 2021, pricing out the buyers needed to clear the market
Why it matters: A market this imbalanced should be correcting. But the fact that it isn't means liquidity has dried up – aka transactions are grinding toward a halt, and the longer it persists, the more something has to give.
The Deep Dive: In a normal market, too many sellers vs. buyers means falling prices. That's because when sellers compete against a smaller pool of buyers, those buyers have leverage and get better deals.
That's how it's supposed to work, right? Well, that's not what's happening in todays housing market . . .
There were an estimated 43% more home sellers than buyers in March - just shy of the largest gap in records going back to 2013.
Putting it into context, that's 600,000 more sellers than buyers.
Miami has 148% more sellers than buyers.
Nashville has 119%.
Austin over 110%.
This is a serious imbalance. And yet prices are still up roughly 2% year over year across buyer's markets.
What gives? Why aren’t prices falling?
That’s because most sellers aren't forced to sell. They refinanced at ~3% during the pandemic. Selling now means giving up that rate and stepping into a 6%-plus mortgage on whatever they buy next.
Think of it like a score - over 100 means you can afford it, below 100 means you can't.
Right now, it sits at 74. So it’s very unaffordable (hasn't been this bad since before 2008).
Keep in mind that the standard rule of thumb is thathousing costs shouldn't exceed 30% of your income (this is the threshold most financial planners, banks, and government agencies use to define "affordable”).
But right now, the median household is spending 41% of its income just to cover homeownership costs. That's principal, interest, taxes, and home insurance - before groceries, car payments, utlities, or anything else.
To put it into context, it was 28% in January 2021. . .
Thus the tug-of-war. Too expensive to buy vs. not forced to sell.
What we’re left with is a frozen market. Not a crash. Not a boom - just an ugly standoff.
Something will eventually break this. Rates fall enough to unlock sellers and buyers, job losses force sales, affordability deteriorates until demand evaporates entirely - or wages surge enough to make these prices affordable.
Which way it'll go is anyone's guess.
Figure 2: Redfin, April 2026
The Dollar Just Hit a Record High in Global Trade — So Much for De-Dollarization
The dollar's share of global transactions just hit a record 51.1% - by this measure, the de-dollarization narrative has never looked weaker.
Rising dollar demand during a crisis creates a dollar shortage that hits emerging markets, commodity prices, and global credit hard.
Why this matters: More of the world transacting in dollars means more of the world needing dollars - to pay for oil, service debt, and settle trade. When that demand spikes during a crisis, you get a progressively worse dollar shortage. This type of macro situation ripples through emerging markets, commodity prices, credit conditions, and global trade.
The Deep Dive: For years, the de-dollarization narrative has been everywhere. BRICS nations building alternative payment systems. China pushing the yuan. Central banks diversifying reserves (especially into gold). Thus, the dollar's days as the world's reserve currency, we're told, were numbered.
Well, the March data just made that argument harder to sell.
The dollar's share of international transactions - tracked via SWIFT (the global financial messaging network that underpins interbank currency moves) - rose to 51.1% in March, up from 49.2% the month before.
That's a record high.
Meanwhile, the euro came in second at around 21%. The yuan - the supposed big dollar rival - sits at just 3.1% (essentially a rounding error).
So, what’s pushing the dollar’s dominance higher in global payments?
Countries and institutions that need dollars to pay for oil, service dollar-denominated debt (there are record amounts outstanding), or simply settle trade invoices find themselves competing for a currency that's suddenly in tighter supply.
The dollar weakened through much of 2025 - down 10% at one point - and it didn't even matter. Because a weaker dollar didn't mean a clear decline in the dollar's role as a reserve or base currency.
For instance, China's CIPS - its own alternative to SWIFT - has been trying to gain traction since 2015. So while the infrastructure for a dollar alternative exists, that doesn’t mean there’s demand for it (especially when markets get nervous).
De-dollarization is a slow-moving and long-term structural play (I’ve written more on it before – read here). It may eventually happen. But every time the global system comes under stress – whether it’s a war, a financial shock, an oil spike - the dollar reasserts itself.
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