The Dunham Quarterly Pulse: Q1–2026

The Dunham Quarterly Pulse: Q4–2025

The Q1 2026 Dunham Quarterly Pulse is now available.

The first quarter closed with the world in turmoil.

A regional war closed the world's most critical oil chokepoint. An AI shock erased a trillion dollars from software stocks in weeks. And the consumers most exposed to both - with no buffer and no clear refinancing path - were already buckling before either arrived.

• The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz - and sent Brent crude surging over 75% year-to-date by end of March.
  
  
• Central banks that were cutting rates are now frozen - or pricing hikes - as inflation got a second wind it didn't need.
  
  
• The "SaaSpocalypse" hit enterprise software hard - $IGV fell over 23%, with Salesforce, Adobe, and Microsoft each down double digits.
  
  
• International equities continued to outperform - but the fault lines are now visible, particularly for energy-importing economies in Europe and emerging markets.
  
  
• At the margin, the consumer is increasingly stressed - subprime delinquency crossed 10% in February, before $4 gasoline arrived.

This quarter's Pulse focuses on structure over headlines - and on the specific dislocations that created both risk and opportunity.

Inside, you'll find:

• How the Strait of Hormuz closure is reshaping global trade flows, inflation, and monetary policy
  
  
• Why the SaaSpocalypse may have been indiscriminate - and what that means for long-term investors
  
  
• What subprime delinquency data signals about the consumer beneath the GDP headline
  
  
• How rising global debt and sticky inflation are shortening the runway for central banks
  
  
• Why international equities are still leading - and where the vulnerabilities lie

You'll also see how the Dunham Investment Committee responded.

Rather than waiting, the committee acted on the dislocations Q1 produced - trimming international and emerging market exposure to lock in gains, and rotating meaningfully into domestic growth as SaaS-driven compression created relatively attractive entry points not seen in years. Fixed income positioning was held steady.

Click below to read the Q1 2026 Dunham Quarterly Pulse and see how we're navigating a market reshaped by war, volatility, and a discipline built for exactly this kind of quarter.

Click here to download the Q1 2026 Quarterly Pulse now.

Disclosures:

This communication is general in nature and provided for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered or relied upon as legal, tax or investment advice or an investment recommendation, or as a substitute for legal or tax counsel. Any investment products or services named herein are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be considered an offer to buy or sell, or an investment recommendation for, any specific security, strategy or investment product or service. Always consult a qualified professional or your own independent financial professional for personalized advice or investment recommendations tailored to your specific goals, individual situation, and risk tolerance.

Information contained in the materials included is believed to be from reliable sources, but no representations or guarantees are made as to the accuracy or completeness of information.

Dunham & Associates Investment Counsel, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser and Broker/Dealer. Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services and securities offered through Dunham & Associates Investment Counsel, Inc.